Is new supply already coming before we build?
How many beds are already approved or in planning in this district, and once they open, is there still a gap for our scheme?
A district that looks short of beds today can be full by the time you open if others got there first. Count the beds already approved and awaiting a decision, add extensions and conversions, take off homes being lost, and set the net figure against the demand outlook for the year you would open.
When people use it: Before buying land or signing heads of terms, again before submitting planning, and at credit committee.
How it works, step by step
Need against beds in the year you open
The district's beds needed against beds to 2035 on Orrery's central assumptions. Note the shortfall in the year your home would open, not today.
Biggest schemes in the pipeline
New care homes in the council sorted by beds, with district, status and dates. Approved schemes and those awaiting a decision are the competition for the same gap.
Schemes with 40 beds or more
Filter to larger schemes of every type, which are the ones built to the modern standard and aimed at the same residents as yours.
Homes being lost
Care homes applying to become houses, flats or shared housing. Each one removes beds and widens the gap, usually in older, smaller homes.
Net supply on the council dashboard
Beds approved and awaiting a decision against homes being lost, beside occupancy, fees and the demand outlook, ready for an investment paper or credit note.
The views you will use
Ask the data in plain English
A real question and answer from Ask Orrery, the assistant inside the platform, for a care home owner in Kent (October 2026). It answers only from Orrery's data and the subscriber's own documents, and shows its sources.
Short answer: Swale has about 133 beds of new care homes approved. Orrery's central case shows a shortfall of about 90 beds in 2030. If both approved schemes are built, they would more than cover that gap before your 70 beds are counted.
Approved or in planning (since Oct 2023, council planning records via PlanIt)
- Approved: a 67 bed care home (reserved matters, ME13) and a 66 bed care home (ME10, approved 25 Aug 2026). That is 133 beds. Neither is on the CQC register yet.
- Pending: an outline application in ME13 for housing or extra care. It states no bed numbers.
- Refused: one outline care home application in ME9.
- Other approvals: four changes of use into care, with no beds stated.
- Losses: three care homes are approved or pending for conversion. They include Blackburn Lodge (34 beds, closed) and a pending partial conversion at Ocean Heights Residential Home (50 beds registered). The CQC check puts beds in homes being lost at 84.
Gap by 2030 (Orrery demand model, all older people's beds)
- Beds needed rise from 855 in 2026 to 953 in 2030.
- Beds fall from 899 to 863, so there is a shortfall of 90 beds in 2030.
- Today there are 44 spare beds. Need overtakes supply in 2028.
- By 2035 the shortfall is 296 beds.
What this means for you
- Swale is not undersupplied today, so a new home would compete for residents at first.
- The 133 approved beds would turn the 2030 gap of 90 into about 43 spare beds. A permission is not a building, so some may never open.
- If all three homes opened (67, 66 and your 70), Swale would have about 113 beds more than the model needs in 2030. That is simple arithmetic on my part. The model's bed supply already assumes some closures and openings at default rates, so the two may partly overlap.
- Your exact location matters. The 67 and 66 bed schemes are in ME13 and ME10, so check how close your site is to them.
These are projections on stated assumptions, not forecasts. You can change closures, new beds and occupancy on the demand page.
Open in Orrery: /app/demand?council=kent and /app/pipeline?area=kent&months=36
The guides "pipeline-before-you-build" and "build-a-care-home" fit this question. Please take professional advice before committing to a site.
More questions you can ask
- “Rank Kent districts by care home beds approved or awaiting a decision against beds needed by 2030.”
- “Build a two page report on new supply in Swale for a lender: approved and pending care home schemes with beds, homes being lost, and the district's demand outlook, with a chart and a table.”
Ask, chart and report, in plain English
Ask Orrery answers from Orrery's data, draws charts on request and builds reports you can save as PDF. These are real examples for Kent.
- Count approved and pending beds separately: approved beds are likely competition; pending ones may be refused or never built.
- The demand outlook is a projection on stated assumptions, not a forecast. Test your case on the low assumptions too.
Answer this for your own councils
Subscribers get every guide, chart and projection for all 153 councils, Ask Orrery with private uploads of their own files, and every council report.
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