ORRERY Intelligence
Get updatesSign in
Lending or advising

Care market evidence for lenders and advisers

Sourced, dated evidence of demand, fees, funding mix and operator finances for one council area, ready to cite in a credit paper, a valuation or a client report.

Choose your council £895 + VAT · adviser licence · web report and PDF
What it helps you do

The evidence for the decision in front of you

  1. Test the demand behind the deal

    Growth in people aged 85+, beds needed by 2035, occupancy against England and how much new supply is coming.

  2. Check the income line

    Council and private fees, payer mix, Funded Nursing Care and EBITDARM for a typical home, tested three ways.

  3. See the downside

    A rated risk assessment, closure risk, and margins under low, central and high assumptions to 2031.

  4. Cite it with confidence

    Every figure carries a numbered reference to an official or published source, with the date, so your committee can check it.

Figures you can use

An example from the Kent report

From the Q4 2026 Kent full market report. Every figure in the report is referenced to its source.

27%EBITDARM, typical older people's homerange 14% to 39% on local costs
2.9%Council fee rise a year to hold marginspay +4% a year, private fees 2 points faster
£993mCare home market valuea year, all payers · £1.24bn by 2031
43%Residents who self fundthe council funds about 35% of beds
87.9%Occupancy, 12 month averagebeds occupied, all homes that report
55%Operators with secured lendingcharges outstanding at Companies House
Inside the report

The pages you will use most

Kent report, EBITDARM: sample page

EBITDARM, tested three ways

A local cost build-up from the council's own cost of care exercise, uprated line by line, against national margins weighted by home size and by payer mix.

Kent report, EBITDARM
West Sussex report, Projections: sample page

Projections and sensitivity to 2031

Fees, beds, market value and margins year by year, with a grid of margins for every pairing of fee rises and pay growth.

West Sussex report, Projections
Kent report, Market value: sample page

Market value by payer

What councils, self funders and the NHS spend on care homes in the area each year, as a low, central and high range.

Kent report, Market value
West Sussex report, Operator finances: sample page

Operator finances

How many operators have borrowed against their business, who lends to them, and how recent the borrowing is.

West Sussex report, Operator finances
What to buy

The adviser licence

For banks, brokers, valuers, consultants and accountants who use the evidence in client work.

£895 + VAT, choose your council
Questions

Before you buy

Anything else? Email hello@orreryintelligence.com and we reply within one working day.

Can I quote the figures in a credit paper or valuation?

Yes, with the adviser licence. It lets everyone in your firm use figures and charts in client work, as long as Orrery Intelligence is credited. You may not publish or pass on the whole report.

Is the EBITDARM a real operator's result?

No. It is an indicative figure for a typical older people's home in the area, built from the council's own cost of care data and published national margins, shown as a range. Always check a home's management accounts.

Where do the figures come from?

Official sources such as CQC, ONS, DHSC, NHS England, Companies House and HM Land Registry, plus the council's own documents. Every page lists its sources by number and the full references are at the end of the report.

How current is it?

The Q4 2026 edition uses CQC data to 1 October 2026 and Companies House to 13 October 2026. Reports are refreshed every quarter.

Which councils are ready?

Kent and West Sussex now. Every council has free headline figures on its council page, and you can ask to be told when its report is published.

Adviser licence, £895 + VAT

Ready now for Kent and West Sussex. Free headline figures for every council in England.

Choose your council Compare the reports