Business plan for an investor or lender

I've drafted the business plan and saved it to your reports. The beds case is weaker than the track record, and the downside shows the extension adding little.

Track record. The accounts are for Example Care Group, not Example House alone.

• Group: turnover was £5.85m and EBITDA £725k in the year to March 2026.
• House: from the management accounts, income over the last 12 months was £3.93m and EBITDARM £713k (18.1%). Occupancy averaged 86.4%.

District need. These are projections, not forecasts.

• Maidstone has spare beds to 2035. Nursing beds to spare fall from 290 to 83, and across all services from 409 to 36.
• Dementia is heavily oversupplied. Spare dementia beds go from 809 to 663, so I would not make the 12 beds dementia beds.
• The 12 beds would have to win residents on quality and price. They would not be filling a shortage. Maidstone has 16 nursing homes in the CQC directory: 13 rated Good and 3 Requires improvement.

Fees.

• Nursing: House charges £1,620 a week privately, against a Kent median of £1,605.
• Residential: House charges £1,395, just under the Kent lower quartile of £1,409.
• Council rates: these match Kent's published rates (£1,187 residential, £1,378 nursing).

Five year projection. This uses the Orrery cost model with your inputs, and the 12 beds open in 2028.

• Central case: the beds add £111k to £172k a year of EBITDARM.
• Downside case: the beds add only £83k falling to £31k a year, because pay rises of 5.5% outrun fee rises and occupancy is 82%.
• Model level: the model sits below your actual margin (13.0% against 18.1%), so read the movement between cases rather than the level.

Risks to fix before this goes to a lender:

• The home has 7 empty beds today.
• Group interest cover is 2.05 times against a 2.0 times covenant.
• The bank loan is repayable in 2031.
• The residents file and the occupancy file disagree on the self-funder count (27 against 31).
• The model fills the new beds immediately, with no ramp-up.

Not held. Build cost, funding, planning status and House's own CQC rating are missing, so the plan gives no return or payback figure. You didn't say what type the 12 beds would be, so the model uses your current mix.

This is not financial advice, so please take professional advice before using it with a lender.